Malaysian Economic Indicators: Leading, Coincident & Lagging Indexes

Overview

Malaysia's economy is expected to remain resilient
with the leading index recording 4.0 per cent in August 2024

Malaysia's Leading Index (LI) continued to demonstrate a strong growth momentum in August 2024 by recording an increase of 4.0 per cent, reaching 114.3 points as compared to 109.9 points in the same month of the previous year. This growth reflected widespread improvements across all components of the LI. Nevertheless, on a monthly basis, the LI experienced a decline of 0.7 per cent due to significant reductions in the Real Imports of Semi Conductors (-0.8%), Expected Sales Value in Manufacturing (-0.6%) and Bursa Malaysia Industrial Index (-0.3%).

Looking at the smoothed long-term trend in August 2024, the LI consistently exceeded 100.0 points, indicating that the Malaysian economy is growing steadily bolstered by strong economic fundamentals and positive outlook of external trade.

The Coincidence Index (CI) which reflects the current economic landscape, recorded a positive annual growth of 2.1 per cent in August 2024, reaching 126.5 points as compared to 123.9 points in the same month of the preceding year. This increase was largely driven by growth in most components except for the Real Salaries and Wages in Manufacturing, which saw a decline of 0.3 per cent. Referring to the monthly performance, the CI showed a marginal decrease of 0.6 per cent, affected by downturns in four out of six components, notably in the Real Contributions, EPF (-0.3%).

The diffusion index for LI and CI remained unchanged for two consecutive months, with LI recording 71.4 per cent and CI recording 100.0 per cent in the reference month.

 

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