Malaysian Economic Indicators: Leading, Coincident & Lagging Indexes

Overview

Malaysia's economy is anticipated to continue expanding in the upcoming months,
with the Leading Index registering 3.5 per cent in June 2024

The Leading Index (LI) continued its positive growth by registering 3.5 per cent, reaching 113.4 points in June 2024 as compared to 109.6 points in the same month of the previous year. The Bursa Malaysia Industrial Index demonstrated robust performance with 42.2 per cent, positioning it as the primary contributor to the Increase. However, the monthly performance of the LI decreased marginally  by 0.7 per cent due to declines in five out of the seven components except for the Bursa Malaysia Industrial Index (0.4%) and Real Money Supply, M1 (0.2%).

Looking at the smoothed long-term trend in June 2024, the LI remained above 100.0 points. This positive trajectory reflects Malaysia’s sustainable and resilient economic growth. As Malaysia is a consumer driven economy, an implementation of salary revision initiative is poised to boost domestic spending.

Regarding the current economic performance, the Coincident Index (CI)  maintained its positive growth since September 2021 with 2.6 per cent, achieving 126.4 points in June 2024. The Real Contributions, EPF (8.5%) was the main driver to this increase, followed by 6.4 per cent rise in the Volume Index of Retail Trade. Correspondingly, the monthly performance of CI showed a similar pattern, increasing 0.2 per cent contributed by all components except for Capacity Utilization in Manufacturing (-0.3%).

The Diffusion Index for LI and CI remained above 50.0 per cent in June 2024. The Diffusion Index for LI remained at 85.7 per cent, while the Diffusion Index for CI increased to 83.3 per cent.

 

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