Overview

Leading Index rises 3.6 per cent in October 2025:
Signalling optimistic economic momentum ahead of 2026

The annual performance of the Leading Index (LI) for October 2025 was more encouraging, recording a 3.6 per cent, reaching 116.2 points as compared to 112.2 points in the corresponding period of the previous year. This significant surge was underpinned by strong double digit growth in three components of the LI, namely the Number of Housing Units Approved (51.2%), Real Imports of Other Basic Precious & Other Non-ferrous Metals (39.2%) and Real Imports of Semi Conductors (32.4%). Concurrently, the monthly performance of the LI rebounded to 2.6 per cent in October 2025 after registering declines for two consecutive months, supported by the improved performance of the Real Imports of Other Basic Precious & Other Non-ferrous Metals (1.8%). This positive development reflects stronger economic momentum towards 2026.

In line with the notable improvement in the performance of the LI, the smoothed long-term trend of the LI surpassed the 100.0 points in October 2025. Based on this scenario, the economic outlook is expected to be more optimistic in the future, supported by encouraging economic activities particularly in imports of intermediate goods, alongside promising performance across key economic sectors, namely the services and manufacturing sectors.

In assessing the current economic situation, the Coincident Index (CI) continued to record an encouraging annual growth of 2.7 per cent to 129.9 points as compared to 126.5 points in the same period last year. A significant 15.3 per cent increase in the Real Contributions, Employees Provident Fund (EPF) reflects stronger employee income flows as well as continuity in employment opportunities. On a monthly basis, the CI also posted positive growth of 0.6 per cent, primarily driven by increases in the Real Salaries & Wages in Manufacturing and Real Contributions to the EPF, which rose by 0.2 per cent each.

The Diffusion Index for the LI showed an increase in December 2025 by registering 71.4 per cent as compared to 57.1 per cent in the previous month. Meanwhile, the Diffusion Index for CI remained unchanged at 83.3 per cent.

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