Overview

SUMMARY OF FINDINGS

The overall index for CPI rose at a higher rate of 5.1 per cent in March 2017 owing to the low base last year and higher retail fuel prices compared to March 2016. Among the major groups which recorded increases were the indices for Transport (+23.0 per cent), Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages (+4.1 per cent), Recreation Services & Culture (+3.0 per cent), Health (+2.6 per cent), Restaurants and Hotels (+2.3 per cent) and Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas & Other Fuels (+2.1 per cent). (Table 1)

Chart 1: Consumer Price Index: Index Number for Overall and Selected Main Groups

The index of transport group showed a significant increase of 23.0 per cent on a year-on-year basis in March 2017, after rising 17.9 per cent in February 2017. This increase is due to the base effect of low Transport group index in March 2016 and the increase in fuel prices in March 2017. The average price of 1 litre of RON95 petrol was RM2.29 in March 2017 compared to RM1.60 in March 2016. As for RON97, the average price increased to RM2.59 in March 2017 compared to RM1.95 in March 2016. Fuels & lubricants for personal transport equipment accounted for 7.8 per cent of the CPI weights.

The index for Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages which accounted 30.2 per cent in the CPI weights, increased 4.1 per cent in March 2017. The increase was fuelled by food sub-group which comprised of Oils and Fats (+38.8 per cent), Fish & Seafood (+5.2 per cent), Vegetables (+4.8 per cent), Meat (+3.7 per cent) and Fruits (+3.7 per cent). As for Food Away From Home index, it continued to rise in March 2017 and showed an increase of 4.4 per cent.

Chart 2: Consumer Price Index: Annual Percentage Change for Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages

Among the index of food items which recorded notable increases in March 2017 compared to the same period last year were Cooking Oil (+48.5 per cent), Watermelon (+15.4 per cent), Spinach (+10.9 per cent), Prawn (+9.1 per cent), Round Cabbage (+8.2 per cent), Choy Sam (+7.6 per cent), Indian Mackerel (Fish) (+7.0 per cent), Spanish Mackerel (Fish) (+5.2 per cent), Cuttlefish (+4.4 per cent) and Chicken (+3.4 per cent). Meanwhile, decreases were registered in the index of some food items such as Shallots (-14.0 per cent), Onions, Big (-4.6 per cent) and Carrots (-2.2 per cent).

The increase in the index for Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages was reflected in most states in Malaysia especially those in highly urbanised states such as Wilayah Persekutuan Kuala Lumpur, Selangor & Wilayah Persekutuan Putrajaya, Pulau Pinang, Johor and Melaka.

Chart 3: Consumer Price Index: Annual Percentage Change for Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages by State

Six states recorded higher increases for Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages index above the national level index for March 2017 compared to the corresponding month in 2016. The index for Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages rose 5.0 per cent in Melaka, 4.6 per cent in Wilayah Persekutuan Kuala Lumpur, 4.5 per cent in Johor, 4.5 per cent in Selangor & Wilayah Persekutuan Putrajaya, 4.3 per cent in Kedah & Perlis and 4.3 per cent in Pulau Pinang.

On a monthly basis, the index for Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages decreased 0.3 per cent in March 2017, after rising 0.9 per cent in February 2017. Meanwhile, the index for Non-Food remains unchanged in March 2017 compared with the preceding month.

Based on a seasonally adjusted term, the overall CPI for March 2017 decreased 0.1 per cent as compared to February 2017.(Table 1)

Core inflation has remained stable at 2.5 per cent in March 2017 compared to the same month of the previous year. Among the major groups which influenced the higher core rate were price increases for Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages (+3.7 per cent), Recreation Services & Culture (+3.0 per cent), Transport (+2.9 per cent), Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas & Other Fuels (+2.7 per cent) and Health (+2.6 per cent).(Table 3)

CPI changes for the period January – March 2017/2016

CPI for the period January to March 2017 registered an increase of 4.3 per cent as compared to the same period last year. The index for Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages were the main contributor to the CPI rise in the period January to March 2017, registered an increase of 4.2 per cent. The increase was the result of increases in the index for Food At Home (+4.5 per cent) and Food Away From Home (+4.0 per cent). While, the index for Coffee, Tea, Cocoa & Non-Alcoholic Beverages decreased 0.2 per cent. Among the subgroups of Food At Home which showed significant increases during this period as shown in Table 2 were Oils & Fats (+38.3 per cent), Vegetables (+7.4 per cent), Fish & Seafood (+5.2 per cent), Meat (+3.4 per cent) and Fruits (+3.1 per cent).

Other major groups which contributed to the CPI rise during this period were Transport (+16.2 per cent), Recreation Services & Culture (+3.1 per cent), Health (+2.5 per cent), Restaurants & Hotels (+2.3 per cent) and Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas & Other Fuels (+2.1 per cent).

Core inflation, which excludes most volatile items of fresh food, as well as administered prices of goods and services recorded changes ranging from 2.3 per cent to 2.5 per cent in the period January to March 2017 compared to the same period of the previous year.

Table 1: Consumer Price Index for Main Groups, Malaysia (2010=100)

Table 2: Consumer Price Index for Sub-Groups of Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages, Malaysia (2010=100)

Table 3: Headline CPI and Core Index by Main Groups, Malaysia (2010=100)

Released By:

DR. MOHD UZIR MAHIDIN
CHIEF STATISTICIAN MALAYSIA
DEPARTMENT OF STATISTICS, MALAYSIA
19 April 2017

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Ho Mei Kei
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