Overview

FORECAST OF BUSINESS PERFORMANCE FOR THE SECOND QUARTER 2017

The business performance in the second quarter of 2017 is expected to increase as recorded by the confidence indicator of +4.5 per cent.

Confidence indicator is a short-term indicator which summarises the overall views of business situation in various sectors in Malaysia. The confidence indicator is computed as the average of the net balance for selected variables.

Respondents in industry, wholesale & retail trade and services sectors expect their business performances to increase in second quarter 2017 with confidence indicators of +2.2 per cent, +3.3 per cent and +11.3 per cent respectively. In contrast, respondents in construction sector expect their business performances to decrease (-8.3%) in the same period. (Chart II)

Forecast of Gross Revenue and Number of Employees                         

Forecast in the second quarter of 2017 showed 35.1 per cent of establishments covered in this survey expect an increase in gross revenue while 19.0 per cent of establishments foresee a decrease. Meanwhile, 45.9 per cent of establishments predict that the gross revenue will be unchanged.

The gross revenue in the second quarter of 2017 is expected to increase with a net balance of +16.1 per cent.

The difference between the percentages of establishments responded favourable and unfavourable response known as net balance.

In terms of number of employees, 20.3 per cent of establishments predict an increase while, 7.7 per cent of establishments predict a decrease in the second quarter of 2017. The magnitude of the positive net balance for the number of employees in the second quarter of 2017 is higher, i.e. +12.6 per cent compared to +2.7 per cent registered in the first quarter of 2017. (Table 1)

CURRENT SITUATION OF BUSINESS PERFORMANCE IN THE FIRST QUARTER 2017

The current situation of business performance in the first quarter 2017 is higher with an overall net balance of all sectors +8.2 per cent as compared to -10.3 per cent in the previous quarter. More than half of the establishments (57.1%) reported the current situation of their business to remain the same. Meanwhile, 25.5 per cent of establishments showed improvement in their business climate while, 17.4 per cent of establishments showed less favourable conditions. (Chart III & Table 2)

Gross Revenue and Number of Employees 

In the first quarter of 2017, the establishments reported that their gross revenue increased with a net balance of +18.2 per cent. The establishments which reported increases in their business gross revenue were 40.8 per cent. In contrast, 22.6 per cent of establishments reported a decline. Meanwhile, 36.6 per cent of establishments have stated their business gross revenue remained the same.

In terms of number of employees, 23.0 per cent of establishments indicated an increase in employment, while 12.3 per cent of establishments reported a decrease. Meanwhile, 64.7 per cent of establishments remained the same. Overall, a net balance of +10.7 per cent for the number of employees were recorded in the first quarter of 2017 as compared to -4.3 per cent in the previous quarter.

Net Balance of Current Situation by Sector

The current business situation for all sectors of industry, construction, wholesale & retail trade and services increased in the first quarter 2017 with a net balance of +4.1 per cent, +22.2 per cent, +8.2 per cent  and +14.1 per cent respectively.

EXPECTATIONS OF BUSINESS PERFORMANCE APRIL-SEPTEMBER 2017

The business performance in April to September 2017 is expected to increase with a net balance of +11.5 per cent. All sectors, i.e. industry, construction, wholesale & retail trade and services are expected to increase with the net balance of +11.8 per cent, +13.9 per cent, +10.0 per cent and +11.4 per cent respectively.

DR. MOHD UZIR MAHIDIN
CHIEF STATISTICIAN MALAYSIA
DEPARTMENT OF STATISTICS, MALAYSIA

31 May 2017

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