Leading Index softens but remains well above trend
The Leading Index (LI) which predicts the economic activity direction on average of four to six months ahead, declined to negative 0.8 per cent in August 2019 from 1.4 per cent in July 2019. Real Imports of Other Basic Precious & Other Non-ferrous Metals and Number of Housing Units Approved were the main components that contributed to the decrease by registering negative 0.3 per cent, respectively. This is parallel with the annual change of LI which showed a negative growth of 0.5 per cent as against 0.4 per cent in the previous month. Despite the fluctuations in both indexes, the growth rate of smoothed LI is consistently above the trend and moving upwards. This implies that the economy is anticipated to remain well in the expansion phase.
The Coincident Index (CI) increased 0.5 per cent in the reference month with Real Contributions to Employees Provident Fund (0.2%) as the main driver. The CI reflects the current economic performance increased further to an annual growth of 2.3 per cent in August 2019 from 1.8 per cent in July 2019.
The Diffusion Index for LI remained at 71.4 per cent in August 2019. Concurrently, the Diffusion Index for CI improved further to 83.3 per cent in the reference month. This indicates the increase of five CI components as against the previous six months.
DATO' SRI DR. MOHD UZIR MAHIDIN
CHIEF STATISTICIAN MALAYSIA
DEPARTMENT OF STATISTICS MALAYSIA
25 October 2019
Rohaida binti Mohamad
Public Relation Officer
Strategic Communication and International Division
Department of Statistics, Malaysia
Tel : +603-8885 7942
Fax : +603-8888 9248
Email : rohaida.mohamad[at]dosm.gov.my