FORECAST OF BUSINESS PERFORMANCE FOR THE FIRST QUARTER 2022
Business confidence turns optimistic going into the first quarter 2022 with a confidence indicator of +7.6 per cent from -0.3 per cent in the preceding quarter.
Among all of the surveyed sectors, Services, Industry and Wholesale & Retail Trade sectors expect better business performance in the first quarter of 2022. The business confidence for Services sector rebounds to a positive trajectory with +11.1 per cent in the reference quarter from -1.3 per cent recorded in the past quarter. Industry sector depicts a better business condition with +12.2 per cent compared to +3.6 per cent recorded in the fourth quarter 2021. Similarly, the Wholesale & Retail Trade sector anticipates brighter business outlook with +4.0 per cent in the reference quarter as against +3.3 per cent in the last quarter.
On a contrary, the Construction sector continues to be pessimistic on its business performance with confidence indicator of -40.4 per cent in the first quarter of 2022.
Exhibit I: Quarterly Confidence Indicator by Sector, Malaysia, 2020-2022
Expectations of Gross Revenue and Number of Employees
With regards to gross revenue, 33.5 per cent of respondents anticipate an increment in their gross revenue for the first quarter of 2022 whilst 27.7 per cent expect a decrease in gross revenue which further led to a net balance of +5.8 per cent. Concurrently, 38.8 per cent of respondents expect their gross revenue to stagnate as compared to the fourth quarter 2021.
In view of employment trend, 70.8 per cent of the establishments plan to retain their manpower in the reference quarter. About 18.2 per cent of establishments intend to recruit more manpower, while 11.0 per cent predict to reduce their manpower which induced to a net balance of +7.2 per cent.
Exhibit II: Expected of Net Balance Gross Revenue and Number of Employees, 2020-2022
EXPECTATIONS OF BUSINESS PERFORMANCE IN JANUARY TO JUNE 2022
Business prospect for the first half of 2022 continues to improve with a net balance of +18.9 per cent as against +24.1 per cent posted for the term of October 2021 until March 2022. This positive outlook was mainly supported by Wholesale & Retail Trade, Services and Industry sectors which are optimistic towards their business performance. The Wholesale & Retail Trade foresees favourable business outlook for the first half of 2022 with a net balance of +27.0 per cent as against +35.1 per cent recorded previously. Simultaneously, Services sector expects better business condition with a net balance of +25.1 per cent from +24.3 per cent. Industry sector also predicts positive business performance with a net balance of +17.7 per cent for January until June 2022 as against +24.5 per cent recorded previously.
Conversely, the Construction sector anticipates less favourable business condition for the next six months with a net balance of -30.8 per cent as compared to -18.4 per cent recorded previously.
Exhibit III: Net Balance of Business Performance Expectation for Upcoming Six Month by Sector, Malaysia, 2019-2022
The full publication of the Business Tendency Statistics First Quarter 2022 can be downloaded through eStatistik portal.
DATO' SRI DR. MOHD UZIR MAHIDIN
CHIEF STATISTICIAN MALAYSIA
DEPARTMENT OF STATISTICS, MALAYSIA
25 February 2022
Mohd Yusrizal Ab Razak
Public Relation Officer
Strategic Communication and International Division
Department of Statistics, Malaysia
Tel : +603-8885 7942
Fax : +603-8888 9248
Email : yusrizal.razak[at]dosm.gov.my