FORECAST OF BUSINESS PERFORMANCE FOR THE FIRST QUARTER 2021
Businesses are forecasting challenging business performance in the first quarter of 2021 by registering -11.3 per cent as against -10.8 per cent in the last quarter.
Among all the sectors covered, Industry foresees better performance in the first quarter of 2021 as compared to the previous quarter though continue in pessimistic sentiment. This expectation is reflected by the improvement in the confidence indicators of the Industry with -4.4 per cent as against -7.5 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2020. Nevertheless, Services and Wholesale & Retail Trade sectors predict decreases in the first quarter of 2021 that is -15.0 per cent and -11.8 per cent compared to -12.2 per cent and -8.7 per cent in the last quarter respectively.
Whereas, the Construction sector remains unfavourable sector with -51.2 per cent in this quarter as against -39.1 per cent in the previous quarter.
Exhibit I: Quarterly Confidence Indicator by Sector, Malaysia, 2019-2021
Expectations of Gross Revenue and Number of Employees
In terms of gross revenue, 25.5 per cent of respondents predict their gross revenue to increase in the first quarter of 2021 whilst 36.5 per cent expect reduction which further leads to a net balance of -10.9 per cent. Simultaneously, 38.0 per cent of respondents anticipate their gross revenue to persist.
In the same quarter, 75.9 per cent of establishments expect their number of workforce to remain despite the net balance of -7.3 per cent. Correspondingly, 8.4 per cent of establishments predict to increase their workforce, while 15.7 per cent intend to reduce their workforce in the first quarter of 2021.
Exhibit II: Expected of Net Balance Gross Revenue and Number of Employees, 2019-2021
EXPECTATIONS OF BUSINESS PERFORMANCE IN JANUARY TILL JUNE 2021
Expectation of businesses slowed for January till June 2021, with the overall net balance registered -4.6 per cent as against -3.7 per cent recorded previously. Industry sector remains optimist towards business performance with positive net balance 4.3 per cent for January till June 2021. This performance is driven by the positive business situation of Agriculture, Manufacturing and Electricity & Water subsectors. Concurrently, the Construction and Wholesale & Retail Trade sectors foresee better business prospects despite negative territory for the next six months with a net balance of -34.6 per cent and -7.7 per cent compared to -50.0 per cent and -29.3 per cent recorded for the period of October 2020 till March 2021 respectively.
The Services sector also anticipates challenging business performance in the forthcoming six months with a net balance of -11.7 per cent compared to -9.1 per cent for the period of October 2020 till March 2021.
Exhibit III: Net Balance of Business Performance Expectation for Upcoming Six Month by Sector, Malaysia, 2018-2021
The full publication of the Business Tendency Statistics First Quarter 2021 can be downloaded through eStatistik portal.
DATO' SRI DR. MOHD UZIR MAHIDIN
CHIEF STATISTICIAN MALAYSIA
DEPARTMENT OF STATISTICS, MALAYSIA
26 February 2021
Mohd Yusrizal Ab Razak
Public Relation Officer
Strategic Communication and International Division
Department of Statistics, Malaysia
Tel : +603-8885 7942
Fax : +603-8888 9248
Email : yusrizal.razak[at]dosm.gov.my