FORECAST OF BUSINESS PERFORMANCE FOR THE FOURTH QUARTER 2018
Businesses expect more favourable performance in the fourth quarter of 2018 compared with third quarter of 2018. The confidence indicator edging up marginally in the fourth quarter of 2018 to +7.1 per cent as against +6.0 per cent recorded in the previous quarter.
Confidence indicator for the Services sector increases for a second consecutive quarter, recording +18.8 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2018 from +16.5 per cent in the preceding quarter. Confidence indicator for the Wholesale & Retail Trade sector also climbs relatively strong in the fourth quarter of 2018 to +13.2 per cent from +3.6 per cent. In contrast, confidence indicator for Construction sector slips further to -21.5 per cent for the fourth quarter 2018 compared to -7.7 per cent in the previous quarter.
Expectations of Gross Revenue and Number of Employees
A total of 42.6 per cent of respondents in all surveyed sectors expect their gross revenue to increase, while 14.8 per cent of the respondents anticipate a decrease in gross revenue.
In terms of employment, 8.6 per cent of the establishments predict an increase while 7.2 per cent of the establishments expect a decrease in the fourth quarter of 2018, which leads to a net balance of +1.4 per cent.
CURRENT SITUATION OF BUSINESS PERFORMANCE IN THE THIRD QUARTER 2018
Business performance has strengthened in the third quarter of 2018 with an overall net balance of +4.1 per cent. Wholesale & Retail Trade sector (+14.2%) was the main contributor to the increase.
Gross Revenue and Number of Employees
A net balance of +13.9 per cent establishments stated gross revenue to increase in the third quarter of 2018. A total of 39.4 per cent of the respondents reported an escalation while 25.5 per cent of them stated otherwise.
In overall, most of the businesses (74.9%) indicated that the number of employees remained unchanged in the third quarter of 2018. Meanwhile, 17.4 per cent of the establishments stated that they hired more employees and the rest of 7.7 per cent establishment reported a decrease.
EXPECTATIONS OF BUSINESS PERFORMANCE IN OCTOBER 2018 TILL MARCH 2019
A net balance of +12.3 per cent indicates that the establishments expect business performance to be more favourable for the period of October 2018 till March 2019 compared with April to September 2018. Businesses in Industry (+9.3%), Wholesale & Retail Trade (+23.1%) and Services (+18.7%) sectors are optimistic on the business conditions for the next six months. Meanwhile, respondents in Construction sector anticipate the business situation will deteriorate with a net balance of -28.5 per cent.
DATO' SRI DR. MOHD UZIR MAHIDIN
CHIEF STATISTICIAN MALAYSIA
DEPARTMENT OF STATISTICS, MALAYSIA
29 November 2018
Ho Mei Kei
Public Relation Officer
Strategic Communication and International Division
Department of Statistics, Malaysia
Tel : +603-8885 7942
Fax : +603-8888 9248
Email : mkho[at]dosm.gov.my