Business Tendency Statistics presents statistics on the business performance based on the Business Tendency Survey which is conducted quarterly. The main objective of this survey is to measure the current business performance in Malaysia as well as expectations for the upcoming three and six months.
This report publishes the statistics of the current business situation for the third quarter of 2016, business expectation for the fourth quarter of 2016 and the upcoming six months period of October 2016 to March 2017.
FORECAST OF BUSINESS PERFORMANCE FOR THE FOURTH QUARTER 2016
The business performance in the fourth quarter of 2016 is expected to increase slightly as recorded by the confidence indicator of +0.1 per cent.
Confidence indicator is a short-term indicator which summarises the overall views of business situation in various sectors in Malaysia. The confidence indicator is computed as the average of the net balance for selected variables.
The business performances for industry and services sectors are expected to increase in fourth quarter 2016 with confidence indicators of +4.2 per cent and +2.6 per cent respectively. Meanwhile, the construction and wholesale & retail trade sectors are expected to decline in the same quarter with confidence indicators of -18.8 per cent and -16.0 per cent respectively. (Chart II)
Forecast of Gross Revenue and Number of Employees
Forecast in the fourth quarter of 2016 showed 29.0 per cent of establishments covered in this survey expect an increase in gross revenue while 21.7 per cent of establishments foresee a decrease. Meanwhile, 49.3 per cent of establishments predict that the gross revenue will unchanged.
The difference between the percentages of establishments responded favourable and unfavourable response known as net balance.
In terms of number of employees, 21.9 per cent of establishments predict an increase while, 10.1 per cent of establishments predict a decrease in the fourth quarter of 2016. The magnitude of the positive net balance for the number of employees in the same quarter is lower, i.e. +11.8 per cent than +14.9 per cent registered in the third quarter of 2016. (Table 1)
CURRENT SITUATION OF BUSINESS PERFORMANCE IN THE THIRD QUARTER 2016
The current situation of business performance in the third quarter 2016 is lower with an overall net balance of all sectors -5.8 per cent as compared to -2.3 per cent in the previous quarter. More than half of the establishments (61.2%) reported the current situation of their business to remain the same. Meanwhile, 16.5 per cent of establishments showed improvement in their business climate while 22.3 per cent of establishments showed less favourable conditions.
Gross Revenue and Number of Employees
In the third quarter of 2016, the establishments reported that their gross revenue showed a decrease with a net balance of -3.5 per cent as compared to +4.8 per cent in the previous quarter. The establishments which reported increases in their business gross revenue in the third quarter of 2016 were 28.4 per cent. In contrast, 31.9 per cent of establishments reported deterioration. Meanwhile, 39.7 per cent of establishments have stated their business gross revenue remained the same.
In terms of number of employees, 18.9 per cent of establishments indicated an increase in employment, while 21.2 per cent of establishments reported a decrease. Meanwhile, 59.9 per cent of establishments reported no change. Overall, a net balance of -2.3 per cent for the number of employees were recorded in the third quarter of 2016 as compared to +1.6 per cent in the previous quarter.
Net Balance of Current Situation by Sector
At sector level, business current situation of services showed positive improvement with a net balance of +5.4 per cent as compared to -0.7 per cent in the previous quarter. In contrast, the industry, construction and wholesale & retail trade sectors have deteriorated during the third quarter 2016 with a net balance of -4.4 per cent, -35.3 per cent and -26.0 per cent respectively. (Chart iv)
EXPECTATIONS OF BUSINESS PERFORMANCE OCTOBER 2016-MARCH 2017
The business performance in October 2016 to March 2017 is expected to increase with a net balance of +6.0 per cent. The industry and services sectors are expected to increase with the net balance of +10.5 per cent and +16.0 per cent respectively. On the other hand, the construction and wholesale & retail trade sectors are expected to decline with net balance of -29.4 per cent and -22.1 per cent respectively.
THE OFFICE OF CHIEF STATISTICIAN MALAYSIA
DEPARTMENT OF STATISTICS, MALAYSIA
30 November 2016
Ho Mei Kei
Public Relation Officer
Corporate and User Services Division
Department of Statistics, Malaysia
Tel : +603-8885 7942
Fax : +603-8888 9248
Email : mkho[at]stats.gov.my