FORECAST OF BUSINESS PERFORMANCE FOR THE FIRST QUARTER 2017
The business performance in the first quarter of 2017 is expected to decrease as recorded by the confidence indicator of -6.9 per cent. (Chart I)
Confidence indicator is a short-term indicator which summarises the overall views of business situation in various sectors in Malaysia. The confidence indicator is computed as the average of the net balance for selected variables.
Respondents in all four sectors namely, industry, construction, wholesale & retail trade and services expect their business performances to decline in first quarter 2017 with confidence indicators of -2.7 per cent, -3.0 per cent, -11.7 per cent and -13.0 per cent respectively.
Forecast of Gross Revenue and Number of Employees
Forecast in the first quarter of 2017 showed 24.0 per cent of establishments covered in this survey expect an increase in gross revenue while 31.2 per cent of establishments foresee a decrease. Meanwhile, 44.8 per cent of establishments predict that the gross revenue will be unchanged.
The difference between the percentages of establishments responded favourable and unfavourable response known as net balance.
In terms of number of employees, 16.3 per cent of establishments predict an increase while, 13.7 per cent of establishments predict a decrease in the first quarter of 2017. The magnitude of the positive net balance for the number of employees in the same quarter is lower, i.e. +2.7 per cent compared to +11.8 per cent registered in the fourth quarter of 2016.
CURRENT SITUATION OF BUSINESS PERFORMANCE IN THE FOURTH QUARTER 2016
The current situation of business performance in the fourth quarter 2016 is lower with an overall net balance of all sectors -10.3 per cent as compared to -5.8 per cent in the previous quarter. More than half of the establishments (64.3%) reported the current situation of their business to remain the same. Meanwhile, 12.7 per cent of establishments showed improvement in their business climate while 23.0 per cent of establishments showed less favourable conditions.
Gross Revenue and Number of Employees
In the fourth quarter of 2016, the establishments reported that their gross revenue declined with a net balance of -3.4 per cent. The establishments which reported increases in their business gross revenue were 31.8 per cent. In contrast, 35.2 per cent of establishments reported deterioration. Meanwhile, 33.0 per cent of establishments have stated their business gross revenue remained the same.
In terms of number of employees, 17.6 per cent of establishments indicated an increase in employment, while 21.9 per cent of establishments reported a decrease. Meanwhile, 60.5 per cent of establishments remained the same. Overall, a net balance of -4.3 per cent for the number of employees was recorded in the fourth quarter of 2016 as compared to -2.3 per cent in the previous quarter.
Net Balance of Current Situation by Sector
The current business situation for all sectors of industry, construction, wholesale & retail trade and services sector showed a deteriorated in the fourth quarter 2016 with a net balance of -5.8 per cent, -8.3 per cent, -31.5 per cent and -8.9 per cent respectively. (Chart IV)
EXPECTATIONS OF BUSINESS PERFORMANCE JANUARY-JUNE 2017
The business performance in January to June 2017 is expected to improve with a net balance of +3.5 per cent. The industry and services sectors are expected to increase with the net balance of +8.8 per cent and +2.1 per cent respectively. On the other hand, the construction and wholesale & retail trade sectors are expected to decline with net balance of -5.6 per cent and -11.8 per cent respectively.
DR. MOHD UZIR MAHIDIN
CHIEF STATISTICIAN MALAYSIA
DEPARTMENT OF STATISTICS, MALAYSIA
28 February 2017
Ho Mei Kei
Public Relation Officer
Corporate and User Services Division
Department of Statistics, Malaysia
Tel : +603-8885 7942
Fax : +603-8888 9248
Email : mkho[at]stats.gov.my